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alisa
01-21 11:13 AM
Assuming everyone stays the course, under these timelines
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
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gc4me
03-19 09:20 AM
This makes no sense to me. 300K LC was pending @backlog centers and all of them have PD 2005 and earlier. Non RIR was processed at the end and 90% of them are EB3. Considering 50% ROW, at least 100K EB3 ROW LCs out there with PD 2005 and earlier. And then comes the PERM LCs. At least another 50K EB3 ROW PERM LCs with PD 2005 out there. With limited EB3 ROW available visa each year (140K total, after retrogressed countries and spill over etc, not more than 40K each year), I see no reason for USCIS to move ROW to current.
According to attorney Ron Gotcher Eb2 India will move up in coming months and EB3 ROW (Rest Of the World) will be current very soon. In that case, the excess EB3 ROW numbers will go to heavily retrogressed countries. This attorney's prediction is 100% correct for the April VB.
See the link.http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4285&page=24
According to attorney Ron Gotcher Eb2 India will move up in coming months and EB3 ROW (Rest Of the World) will be current very soon. In that case, the excess EB3 ROW numbers will go to heavily retrogressed countries. This attorney's prediction is 100% correct for the April VB.
See the link.http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4285&page=24
sen_raju
09-19 10:39 AM
Yes, I agree we should change the name to LegalImmigrationVoice. I feel a gr8 sense achievement and satisfaction that I was a part of the rally and was carrying Florida's flag.
Yes we need to put the word LEGAL everywhere. Even at the airport and in the flight after looking at our T-shirts people were asking what we were demanding. It was not clear to them whether we are legal or illegal and so we had to explain them.
Also we should not narrow it down to India and China only....May be in future it will be a good idea to check with the speakers what they are going to talk about.
Overall it was a gr8 effort and hope we will have more turnout in the future.
Yes we need to put the word LEGAL everywhere. Even at the airport and in the flight after looking at our T-shirts people were asking what we were demanding. It was not clear to them whether we are legal or illegal and so we had to explain them.
Also we should not narrow it down to India and China only....May be in future it will be a good idea to check with the speakers what they are going to talk about.
Overall it was a gr8 effort and hope we will have more turnout in the future.
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alex99
04-09 08:16 AM
Please Participate in this...
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kopguy
10-20 03:15 PM
Obama is leading in polls over Maccain by almost ten points. Unless Obama makes some stupid mistake his lead will only increase. We got to come up with a strategy assuming Obama becomes president.
ImmiLosers
11-22 12:26 AM
I am unable to find USCIS internal I-140 adjudication manual. This could be my lifeline. Someone please provide link for it. Thanks!
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ciber.couger
09-18 09:17 PM
I just mentioned this in preious thread, I totaly agree with you
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uma001
03-09 09:44 PM
HAHAAHA, Yu guys are still dreaming. No more egreen cards for H1Bs doesnt matter what stage you are in. You will get queries like 'when there are so many americans without jobs, why do you need immigrants?' can any company wants to respond to this query?
Already several companies (especially american companies)received this type of audit, And they stopped filing labor and I140.Dont know what type of new audits come at 485 stage.I lost hopes of green card. I have 3.6 years left on H1. I will save whatever I can n go back to india, open a groceyr store, run it on no profit no loss purpose.
Already several companies (especially american companies)received this type of audit, And they stopped filing labor and I140.Dont know what type of new audits come at 485 stage.I lost hopes of green card. I have 3.6 years left on H1. I will save whatever I can n go back to india, open a groceyr store, run it on no profit no loss purpose.
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pointlesswait
07-12 05:05 PM
Does anyone have the list of latest set documents required to file for 485.... can you plzzzz email/post it here... thanks
can it be done without the help of an attorney...????
can it be done without the help of an attorney...????
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Administrator2
04-21 10:23 AM
Sorry, did not see this thread before.
Please let me know if you still need someone to call members. I am available until 4pm EST today.
Thank you ns007 and other members who have send PM today offering to volunteer for this initiative.
gsc999, ArunAntonio, pcs, newuser, willgetgc2005, pasupuleti, caydee, gcnirvana, ramaonline, 485Mbe4001 and samir took the lead in volunteering for calling our friends in CA. IV very much appreciates their willingness to volunteer.
We all will soon need to get into more active mode to participate in similar events in the local areas/communities. Kindly update your profile with your contact information. This is very important so that we could contact whenever there is any such opportunity.
Please let me know if you still need someone to call members. I am available until 4pm EST today.
Thank you ns007 and other members who have send PM today offering to volunteer for this initiative.
gsc999, ArunAntonio, pcs, newuser, willgetgc2005, pasupuleti, caydee, gcnirvana, ramaonline, 485Mbe4001 and samir took the lead in volunteering for calling our friends in CA. IV very much appreciates their willingness to volunteer.
We all will soon need to get into more active mode to participate in similar events in the local areas/communities. Kindly update your profile with your contact information. This is very important so that we could contact whenever there is any such opportunity.
more...
wizard20740
07-09 07:25 PM
A FBI name check does not seem to be a mandatory requirement for a GC. I think it maybe part of a "National Security Background Check" but does not seem to be a mandatory one.
Also Please see link below, which seems to indicate that precedents exist for issuing Citizenship to people without completion of background checks. These checks have to be completed within 120 days of citizenship interview, and it seems that in nearly 20% cases, people have been granted citizenship without completion of background checks because the 120 day timeline expired.
http://immigration.about.com/b/a/256020.htm
Would you mind quoting the actual law then?
Does every I-485 need FBI approval or just background check? How do you know that it needs FBI Name Check for all cases. Quote the law please.
Also Please see link below, which seems to indicate that precedents exist for issuing Citizenship to people without completion of background checks. These checks have to be completed within 120 days of citizenship interview, and it seems that in nearly 20% cases, people have been granted citizenship without completion of background checks because the 120 day timeline expired.
http://immigration.about.com/b/a/256020.htm
Would you mind quoting the actual law then?
Does every I-485 need FBI approval or just background check? How do you know that it needs FBI Name Check for all cases. Quote the law please.
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gconmymind
07-14 06:36 PM
Is it possible they are trying to adjudicate my 485. I am EB2 India PD: JAN 2006.
The reason there is an RFE and not a NOID means USCIS is trying to adjudicate your application. Depends what action they take on your response..my 2 cents
The reason there is an RFE and not a NOID means USCIS is trying to adjudicate your application. Depends what action they take on your response..my 2 cents
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BharatPremi
03-17 01:03 PM
Does anyone know how many applicants convereted from EB3 to EB2 ?
I wish a lot convereted, that is the only releief for us. I filed my I-485 in July 2007....it is pathetic to wait so long.
Porting from Eb3 to Eb2, at first glance looks like advantageous to remained lot of EB3 as it seems to be shortened the queue but one factor spilling over from ROW to EB2 first w.r.t EB3 kills that "virtual" advantage proprtionately (if not 100%).
I wish a lot convereted, that is the only releief for us. I filed my I-485 in July 2007....it is pathetic to wait so long.
Porting from Eb3 to Eb2, at first glance looks like advantageous to remained lot of EB3 as it seems to be shortened the queue but one factor spilling over from ROW to EB2 first w.r.t EB3 kills that "virtual" advantage proprtionately (if not 100%).
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DDD
02-16 08:41 PM
looking good eilsoe.... I wish I had time to join. Wanna give myself a modo project.
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boreal
07-12 06:00 PM
the current 485 processing dates for both NSC and TSC are in July'07.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/jsps/Processtimes.jsp?SeviceCenter=NSC
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/jsps/Processtimes.jsp?SeviceCenter=TSC
which means, processing of all the 485's with a PD before July'07 are completed and ready to be assigned a visa number.
Are you sure about this? That means USCIS has been doing the pre-adjudication for applications whose PD was not current?
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/jsps/Processtimes.jsp?SeviceCenter=NSC
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/jsps/Processtimes.jsp?SeviceCenter=TSC
which means, processing of all the 485's with a PD before July'07 are completed and ready to be assigned a visa number.
Are you sure about this? That means USCIS has been doing the pre-adjudication for applications whose PD was not current?
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kramesh_babu
07-27 08:44 PM
But I do understand your point though, FYI. I already left them last summer in good terms and I still have good relationship with them. I also referred few of my friends (who had bad experience with their employers and wanted to come out) to ECG and never heard any issues from them yet :)
Other than the above, I really do NOT have anything else with them, TRUST ME dude!!!
Are you sure you are no way associated with them (of course, other than being a consultant to them)? ;)
Other than the above, I really do NOT have anything else with them, TRUST ME dude!!!
Are you sure you are no way associated with them (of course, other than being a consultant to them)? ;)
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gc_chahiye
08-15 04:02 PM
everyone was expecting them to go U
EB1 has cutoff?? for the first time in recent memory?
EB1 has cutoff?? for the first time in recent memory?
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hara_patta_for_rico
07-09 07:54 PM
I feel that they did not violate any clause. Till June 30 which is end of third quarter, they are authorized to approve (3*27%*140K) 113,400. However they approved only 66,400 till May 31. That yields about 47,000 for June alone(10%+any number not used in previous months). The reamining visas are eligible for Jul 1, which is 13,000. Put together June and July1, it comes 60,000. Therefore they did not violate any law. This makes only 126,000. The remaining number was splitted for Consular processing.
my 2 cents...
Do you know that July 1st was a Sunday? A non-working day.
my 2 cents...
Do you know that July 1st was a Sunday? A non-working day.
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sukhwinderd
03-07 09:04 AM
i need to accomodate people coming from NJ, CA, FL.
if anyone wants to offer place at their home please let me know.
if anyone wants to offer place at their home please let me know.
sc3
10-18 10:32 PM
Kumar:
Don't worry, I gave you green. I wish 'critiques' are out in open for discussion to get to our objective. But those moroons like hiding
Just imagine the cowardice of these people!. Online forums already have sufficient anonymity that you dont have to reveal your true name. Despite that people hide behind comment system to give reds (and tell things like "you suck" and what not). I hope the admins shut down this misused feature. Or make the system non-anonymous so that we can drag out these people and take up their comments in open forum.
Don't worry, I gave you green. I wish 'critiques' are out in open for discussion to get to our objective. But those moroons like hiding
Just imagine the cowardice of these people!. Online forums already have sufficient anonymity that you dont have to reveal your true name. Despite that people hide behind comment system to give reds (and tell things like "you suck" and what not). I hope the admins shut down this misused feature. Or make the system non-anonymous so that we can drag out these people and take up their comments in open forum.
superdude
07-24 12:20 PM
My lawyer is going to submit the 485 WITHOUT a letter from my current employer. This is going to be a concurrent I-140 and I-485 application (140 and 485 applied together).
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
employment letter is not part of initial evidnece per the FAQ issue by USCIS on 07/23/2007. Only signatures and exact fee amounts are part of initial evidence. Sit back and relax now.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
employment letter is not part of initial evidnece per the FAQ issue by USCIS on 07/23/2007. Only signatures and exact fee amounts are part of initial evidence. Sit back and relax now.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
